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WorldDonald Trump: polls, trial, primary... Can he win the 2024 presidential election?

Donald Trump: polls, trial, primary… Can he win the 2024 presidential election?

TRUMP. While he must participate in several trials in 2024, Donald Trump remains a candidate for the American presidential election. However, he must win the right-wing primary and overcome his legal setbacks before hoping to return to the White House.

[Mis à jour le 29 août 2023 à 16h12] Donald Trump composes between legal setbacks and preparation for the presidential campaign. And if court cases seem to take precedence over the political career of the American billionaire, the former President of the United States is trying to take advantage of every opportunity to strengthen his position as a candidate for the presidential election of 2024. Even if it means burning steps.

As the Republican Party primaries began, the septuagenarian decided to bypass the political meetings of the American right, sure of his lead over his opponents. Instead, it is with justice that he struggles and the fight looks more complicated. The date of Donald Trump’s first trial, the one on the attempt to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election, has been set for March 4, 2024, i.e. in the middle of the electoral campaign. The billionaire’s campaign therefore promises to be eventful, to the point of being suspended? Not sure, because for the time being Donald Trump seems able to be a candidate and what is more to make a nice score in the next ballot for the White House.

Can Donald Trump be a 2024 presidential candidate despite the trials?

If not that they will deprive Donald Trump of precious time during the presidential campaign, the trials will not prevent the former tenant of the White House from running for election. And on the contrary, Donald Trump’s appearances in court already scheduled for March and May 2024 will have repercussions on the campaign: they risk further tarnishing the reputation of the septuagenarian with his detractors, but may also very well strengthen the adherence of right-wing voters to the Republican’s candidacy. This enthusiasm of Trumpists around politics has already been noted with each indictment of Donald Trump. Following the example of the former head of state, they denounced “legal relentlessness” or even “attempts at intimidation”, making the billionaire a “victim of the system”.

And despite a prison sentence?

The trials to come will not curb the political ambitions of Donald Trump, any more than a conviction pronounced by the American justice at the end of one of these trials. Article 2 of the American Constitution which provides for the conditions of eligibility of the President of the United States does not mention the obligation to have a clean criminal record. The indictments, the holding of a trial and even a prison sentence do not therefore prevent Donald Trump from being a candidate for the election in 2024, even less from being elected. The proof with the brief passage of the real estate magnate in prison on August 23, by decision of the Atlanta court, which did not question his candidacy. The billionaire is, however, the first former head of state to be charged and to stand in a presidential election.

Among the proceedings against Donald Trump, only one could be an obstacle to his candidacy: the federal investigation into the attempt to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election and the uprising of January 6, 2021, better known as the assault on the Capitol, in which the former head of state is suspected of having played a key role. Being responsible for or having participated in a rebellion against the United States is indeed a criterion for ineligibility for the American presidency, but the charge of “fraudulent conspiracy against the United States” was held against the candidate during his indictment in this case, August 3, 2023. If the conclusions of justice confirm the guilt of Donald Trump, his candidacy would no longer be valid. Justice still has to decide before the presidential election of 2024. After this time, the question will no longer arise and in the event of Donald Trump’s victory, the man could pardon himself.

Why is Donald Trump not participating in the Republican primary debate?

If he wants to be the Republican Party’s candidate for the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump has no choice but to participate and win the party’s primary. However, the former reality TV star believes that he does not have to submit to the primary debates against these rivals and has confirmed his absence during these political meetings. “The public knows who I am and what a successful presidency I have exercised,” he said to justify his choice to exempt himself from the debates.

All the latest polls support Donald Trump and confirm his lead over his opponents on the right, even over his most serious rival: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. But will the man keep this lead? Some candidates’ advisers fear, on the contrary, a loss of momentum. The other primary candidates could take advantage of Donald Trump’s absence to stand out and gain points in the polls. This is how in 2016, Donald Trump lost the state of Iowa in the Republican primaries.

How does Donald Trump score in the polls?

The polls agree to place Donald Trump in the lead in the opinion of Republican voters with regard to all the studies published in 2023. His main competitor, the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, could obtain 15% of the votes of the Republicans against more than 50% for Donald Trump.

In the event of a duel then with Joe Biden, the current President of the United States, the two scores of the candidates are estimated at 43%! The numerous charges against Donald Trump therefore do not seem to serve him in the presidential race of 2024.

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