The 12-month Euribor, the most widely used indicator in Spain to calculate variable mortgage loans, fell in August for the first time in 20 months, but remains above 4%, as it closed the month in an average rate of 4.073%.
In December 2021, the Euribor closed with a negative rate of -0.502%. A month later, in January 2022, it rose to -0.477% and since then it has not stopped increasing until it reached 4.149% in July of this year, representing nineteen consecutive months of growth.
The indicator is also well above the level of a year before (in August 2022 it was at 1.249%), which means that, despite the moderate decrease this month, the mortgage rate will rise again for those Now it’s your turn to review.
Thus, in an average variable mortgage of 143,796 euros (according to the latest data published today by the INE corresponding to June), with a term of 25 years and with an interest of Euribor plus 1%, the installments will go from 627 euros to 846 euros.
This represents an increase of about 220 euros per month or 2,640 euros per year.
Given the fall of the indicator, the economist and financial analyst Javier Santacruz has assured that the Euribor reflects what the market is discounting, which is that in September the European Central Bank (ECB) will undertake the last increase in interest rates.
This will be followed, for an extended period, by price stability, barring a deep recession in some of the major economies.
However, the economist does not expect a change in the indicator’s trend, and sees it likely that it will remain around current levels, between 4% and 4.1%.
In the same way, the director of Mortgages of the comparator iAhorro, Simone Colombelli, is cautious, and assures that “August, historically, has been a month of falls because everything is paralyzed”, so he sees it likely that the Euribor will return to go up from September.
“I wouldn’t say that what we are seeing is a downward trend as such, but rather a small seasonality in the data,” added Colombelli, who believes that uncontrolled inflation will lead to new rate increases by central banks. .
In the same way, XTB analyst Adrián Hostaled predicts that the indicator will remain stabilized for several weeks at around 4.1%, and that after the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for September 14, the Euribor register a slight increase.
In his opinion, although the inflation and GDP growth data will condition the ECB’s decisions, currently the expected scenario is for the body to raise interest rates again by 25 basis points.
The head of Hipoo’s Mortgage Analysis department, Rafael Moral, considers that the possible increase, again, in interest rates by the ECB in September, predicts a slight increase in the Euribor at the beginning of the last four months of the year.
“Although it is true that there are possibilities that interest rates will rise again, at Hipoo we believe that the Euribor will remain at values between 4% and 4.35%, as long as external factors do not appear that aggravate the situation. inflation in the eurozone,” he warned.
For his part, the specialist in mortgages from the HelpMyCash comparator, Miquel Riera, does not believe that the fall in August represents a change in the trend of the Euribor and sees it likely that there will be new increases in September or October.
