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WorldTurkish-Armenian normalization: a novelty appropriate in different conditions (Analysis)

Turkish-Armenian normalization: a novelty appropriate in different conditions (Analysis)

AA / Istanbul / Prof. Dr. Armağan Gözkaman

May 3, in Austrian capital, follows the three-cycle cycle of rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. The negotiations are arranged by the intermediate media of special representatives for the normalization of relations between the two countries. Although Turkey is represented by Ambassador Serdar Kiliç, the current vice-president of the Armenian National Assembly, Ruben Rubinyan, is represented. In the reunion suite, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey concludes a declaration, confirming that the parties have confirmed the objective of “complete normalization” and are concentrating on “the possible measures to be taken” of concrete progress in this direction “. The course of the negotiation process “without preconditions” has been confirmed by the parties.

The importation of normalization for the Caucasus

On January 14, in Moscow, the two countries entered a cycle of negotiations aimed at normalizing their relations. This change is intervened after the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan’s in 2020 2020 in Karabakh, after which Turkey launched a clear and qualified military service in Azerbaijan. Given the Armenian dominance in the region, it is not possible to open diplomatic routes between Ankara and Yerevan. Azerbaijan’s military successes to launch the negotiation process in January or at least two races.

Concerned neo-hippies and their global warming, i’ll tell ya. Turkey accepts this objection as a serious parameter of its foreign policy and does not end its relations with Azerbaijan, which is both an important alliance and a commercially important partner. The other reason is that Nikol Pashinyan’s government has established relations with Russia on a special platform in terms of domestic and foreign policy. For Moscow, which occupies a central position in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, the continuity of security and stability in the Caucasus is of vital importance. According to the Kremlin, Armenia should be involved in a process of political rapprochement with Azerbaijan and Turkey to achieve stability and economic development.

The “Azerbaijani factor”

At the same time, another point which is being developed in favor of Turkey and which should be more conclusive, concurrently with Azerbaijan. In fact, in Baku, which is Yerevan, there is almost no prior separation of the preliminary pairs for the pact between the two states. This initiative, whose instructions come directly from President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, was mediated by the mediation of the President of the EU, Charles Michel. The chord in question is an important occasion to eliminate intermittent tensions in Karabagh. Finally, it is indicated that Pashinyan and Aliyev facilitated the creation of a commission in order to address the frontal problems and that the functionalities of the two parties participating in this commission. Considering that the objective of “rapidly providing a solution” exists both in Azerbaijan and in Armenia, it can be said that the initiative in question has a chance of success. After a positive evolution, of course, one can avoid some optimism that the dialogue between Turkey and Armenia will not be interrupted by the “Azerbaijani factor”.

Ankara and Yerevan attach great importance to negotiations

In this context, the process of rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan takes place within the framework of a Jamaican pragmatism that is present between the two States. Pashinyan did not advance any “pre-condition” to launch the negotiation process. At this stage, the notary is convinced that the military deficit of Armenia in Karabakh is not going to change in Armenia until the end of the elections in June 2021.

The Civil Contract Party, led by Pashinyan, has a majority in parliament, which has a lot of legitimacy to keep the smugglers away from Turkey. The Armenian Prime Minister did not demand that the Turkish party “recognize the genocide” in connection with the 1915 events.

If you have named negotiators for parolers, it is evident that the process is important in both capitals. The Turkish quote is represented by an experienced diplomat, Serdar Kiliç. Occupying important posts as Minister of Foreign Affairs and comprising in the embassies of the United States, Japan and Lebanon, and being Secretary General of the National Security Council with more than two members and being against the reconciliation “Armenian genocide” during its mandate in the United States. In a letter that was written to the president of the David Harris Committee in 2014, referring to the appeal of the American Committee for the events of 1915, it was recognized as genocide, or it was initiated by the question ” , insulting and disconnected manifestation of reality “. The special representative of Armenia, Ruben Rubinyan, is an experienced political man, the current vice-president of the Armenian National Assembly and the chairman of the Permanent Committee on Foreign Relations. Noting that in Armenian political circles, Nikol Pashinyan is known as a confederate.

The atmosphere of negotiations and the internal dynamics of Armenia

It does not err on the side of claiming that the objective of normalization shared by Ankara and Yerevan, at least at the current time, does not follow frontiers authorizing large attitudes. The width of the right pass is divided into a long and different period. At this stage, the rapier like the government change in Yerevan, the atmosphere of normalization is still in danger, only counting at the necessary pace with a qualified development of diplomatic parlors. Aujourd’hui, in various social reactions in Armenia, the Republic of Turkey has been accused of “closing the curtain” on Karabakh’s profit from Azerbaijan, and does not just ignore Ankara’s military à Baku’s military. At the same time, there is a government that is politically “inclined to make concessions” in Turkey and that the opposition to the issue is appealing.

From this point of view, it can be ascertained that the political developments in Yerevan are the main determining factor in slowing down the negotiation process. The acceptance by the Armenian administration of the “negotiation-free” negotiation process, leaving behind these traditional taboos. However, the fact that the events of 1915 are named after each other is important for the relations to be completely normalized. What counts is the distance that can be traversed before it can only be reached. The protocols bearing the headings “Establishment of diplomatic relations” and “Development of bilateral relations” have been signed in a recent passage, although not even the meter can be seen. Consequently, all the gains to be realized during the maintenance of the Pashinyan government are extremely important for the Republic of Turkey.

***

Analysis of Prof. Dr. Armağan Gözkaman, on the stages of the normalization process after the Turkey-Armenia rallies that are tense in Vienna on May 3rd.

[Prof. Dr. Armağan Gözkaman, Université Beykent, Président du département des Relations internationales

*Les opinions exprimées dans cet article n’engagent que leur auteur et ne reflètent pas forcément la ligne éditoriale de l’Agence Anadolu.



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